Diversifying across roughly 15 uncorrelated return streams cuts portfolio risk by about 80% without sacrificing returns, multiplying the return-to-risk ratio by a factor of five.
Dalio explains the math behind his core investing mantra: combining about 15 uncorrelated bets can slash risk roughly 80% while keeping returns intact, dramatically improving the return-to-risk ratio. ✦ AI generated
Ray Dalio · My First Million · 2026-07-17 · original ↗
starts at this moment · 3:27
“Can you like close your eyes and like remember that conversation?”
If you can get out to 15, you can get down to about reduce about 80% of your risk without reducing your return. That means that you increase your return to risk ratio by something like a factor of five. So that means you can get the upside without having the downside.
verbatim transcript · starts at 3:27
3:27you can get out to 15, you can get down to about reduce about 80% of your risk without reducing your return. That means that you increase your return to risk ratio by something like a factor of five. Okay? In other words, wow. So that means you can get the upside without having the downside. Okay? And then humility, you know, I wanted people to kick the [ __ ] out of whatever I thought,
3:58you know, to try to do that and then have that. And that change in that approach was the basis of Bridgewater going from, you know, be having to borrow $4,000 from my dad to the largest hedge fund, most successful hedge fund in the world. >> If we wanted to be better investors, what do you think the most common mistake smart guys can make when it comes to investing? They don't have a
4:21game plan. >> So, what's a good game plan look like? How do you know if you have a good game plan? >> Well, the way that I did it was um um every time I would make a decision, but this is the building of all principles I did, but particularly in the markets, every time I would be make a decision, I would go back and study if I made that
4:39decision in these circumstances, how would it have worked in the past? And I would know the track record of that decision. And it that would give me also greater understanding of how things work. And so then I would have a decision rule and then I would program it into the market into the computer and when this thing come along then I started to realize okay now I've got
5:05criteria. So rather than just the one that I would see, I would say in the computer dump in all of them and where do they exist anywhere in the world and what what will so give me give me one good decision rule that wherever it happens in the r world world that I have a track record of knowing how those work and wherever it is in the world you
- ·~15 uncorrelated return streams needed
- ·Cuts portfolio risk by ~80%
- ·Returns stay intact, not reduced
- ·Gains upside without the downside
- ·Diversifying to 15 streams slashes risk
- ·Risk drops from 100% to ~20%
- ·Same return, far less risk
- ·Return-to-risk ratio improves ~5x