Data is a durable scaling complement to AI models, making the data market at least a $100 billion industry by 2030, if not a trillion.
Anastasios argues there are two types of hypergrowth markets, one being 'scaling complements' like data, whose demand scales with model growth. Because data only becomes irrelevant when AGI is achieved, it is more durable than GPUs, and he projects the market at $100B+ by 2030. ✦ AI generated
Anastasios · 20VC · 2026-08-03 · original ↗
starts at this moment · 44:00
“Is what happens to this layer of the market?”
So, I have a thesis on hyperrowth. There's two types of hyperrowth markets that we see today. Market A is what I call scaling compliments and these are goods that are complimentary goods to the scaling of AI models. And I mean that in the economic sense. A complimentary good is good A and B are the good A is a complement to good B if the demand for good B drives demand for good A. So if I have a car, gas is a complimentary good to cars. The more cars are sold, the more gas is sold. And so data is one of these scaling compliments because the bigger models scale, the more data you need. And that's a scaling law question. And so the more models you get and the bigger that they're getting, the more they're proliferating. The more businesses are training their own models, the more data you are going to need. And it's a very fundamental need. People forget this. They think about data as a commodity. It's really not. It's actually less so of a commodity than even GPUs because in order for data to become uh irrelevant, humans need to become irrelevant and that means that we've achieved AGI. So data is a very durable need and companies are spending on it usually with within frontier labs at about 10 to 20% about the amount that they're spending on GPUs. And so if you believe in the GPU market accelerating, if you believe in the scaling of models, if you believe this is going to be a big industry that keeps accelerating and growing, then absolutely you should believe in the data market. I believe it's going to be at least hundred billion dollars by 2030, if not a trillion.
verbatim transcript · starts at 44:00
43:49your biases. I There's so many providers at a billion dollars plus in revenue. Handshakes over a billion. McCall's over a billion. Serge is over a billion. I might be leaving out other people, but those are the ones I know. And then hundreds of millions with the rest. Is what happens to this layer of the market? >> Well, people are projecting growth in this market. So, let's talk about why
44:10that market is a growing market and why it's hyperrowth. I mean, Meror obviously is a generational revenue ramp company. They've been doing great. So is Handshake. So is Surge. So is scale. All these companies doing great. >> People forget scale. The scale is still ramping revenue. Well, >> bro, scale is still crushing. Still crushing even post fractional aqua hire. >> They are. How much of that revenue is
44:35Facebook? >> No, I have no idea. Yeah, I don't know >> a lot. >> Go ask Wayne. >> Agree. >> Um, >> but okay. So, what so why is it interesting? >> So, I have a thesis on hyperrowth. There's two types of hyperrowth markets that we see today. Market A is what I call scaling compliments and these are goods that are complimentary goods to the scaling of AI models. And I mean
45:00that in the economic sense. A complimentary good is good A and B are the good A is a complement to good B if the demand for good B drives demand for good A. So if I have a car, gas is a complimentary good to cars. The more cars are sold, the more gas is sold. And so data is one of these scaling compliments because the bigger models
45:23scale, the more data you need. And that's a scaling law question. And so the more models you get and the bigger that they're getting, the more they're proliferating. The more businesses are training their own models, the more data you are going to need. And it's a very fundamental need. People forget this. They think about data as a commodity. It's really not. It's actually less so of a commodity than even GPUs
45:46because in order for data to become uh irrelevant, humans need to become irrelevant and that means that we've achieved AGI. So data is a very durable need and companies are spending on it usually with within frontier labs at about 10 to 20% about the amount that they're spending on GPUs. And so if you believe in the GPU market accelerating, if you believe in the scaling of models, if you
46:10believe this is going to be a big industry that keeps accelerating and growing, then absolutely you should believe in the data market. I believe it's going to be at least hundred billion dollars by 2030, if not a trillion. If we expand that, okay, if we think anthropic and open AI can be 3 to5 trillion companies, let's just put that there. How big does that mean the data
46:29providers can be? Like you McCall's reportedly raising now at 20. Does that mean that these providers will be worth hundred billion? That wouldn't be egregious, would it? To say it's 3% of the market cap of >> Yeah, I think it could I think it could easily be a hundred. >> I think these companies will easily be worth hundreds of billions of dollars. And I think they could even be worth
- ·Data is a scaling complement: model growth drives data demand
- ·Data stays relevant until AGI makes humans irrelevant
- ·Durability rivals GPUs, which depend on continued model scaling
- ·Data market projected at least $100B by 2030, possibly a trillion