By joining anonymized credit-card and email-receipt data, Coatue could numerically prove that ChatGPT subscribers reduce their Google page views over time.

18:21It'll be very interesting to see how it plays. You know, for me, if I were CEO of Google, that would be way above my pay scale. I had no idea how to put it all together, but god is it just fun to be alive and just see how what's Amazon going to do? What's Google going to do? What are all these guys? So what we try to do here is as part of the data

18:39science that we do, we process probably a 100 million credit card receipts a day. So we have a very fine view of what the US consumer does. And we have another data set where we know what consumers do based on their email receipts. And the trick was to try to join those two data sets. And in general in data science, my only lessons learned is data is useless unless you can join

19:03data sets that don't speak to each other. That is the unlock. And so we did that. And what you see on that uh chart is that absent chat GDP uh chat uh GPT maybe uh Google page views for particular user growing 4% per year. So we are consuming more Google. Then we get a subscription to Chad GDP which we uh Chad Jesus Christ I confused GDP and

19:32GPT. We get a subscription and now we're like ah this guy's paying 20 bucks a month. Yes. And then we track once he started paying the 20 bucks a month to OpenAI what happens to the usage and you can see peak to trough it's down 8% year-over-year. Peak to trough it's let's say down 11. So clearly page views are going down and that's over almost two years, right? So it's not like it's

19:59immediate. It's not like it's an immediate gigant. But one thing we've learned and Thomas and I repeat that to each other all the time is these major shifts, they just start one little step at a time and that one little step becomes a gigantic move quickly. So you can't underestimate these small moves. And I I think this confirms something that we all know anecdotally as as we're

20:21talking about. Well, and I think that you know even slide 24, you know, when we were talking two years ago about chat GPT, we knew it was off to a good start, but the question was what's going to happen when Meta, you know, gets its game going? What's going to happen when Google launches Gemini? What's going to happen when Elon launches Grock? What's going to happen when, you know, Claude