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Bitcoin hit its four-year cycle peak at 126,000 exactly as gold — a high-Sharpe, uncorrelated asset driven by central bank buying — became the star performer in 2025, and fast money rotated from Bitcoin into gold, sending silver to $150

The guest describes how Bitcoin's 126K four-year cycle peak coincided with gold's breakout in 2025: gold was up over 30%, uncorrelated to stocks and bonds with a high Sharpe ratio, first driven by central banks then by fast money rotating out of Bitcoin. ✦ AI generated

Speaker B · The Compound · 2026-07-26 · original ↗

And then Bitcoin peaked uh it had a four-year cycle peak at 126,000 just at the time that gold had really been on the move, right? So 2025, gold was the star player was up over 30% even though it's completely uncorrelated to both stocks and bonds. So that I mean that's what you want in a portfolio, right? You want uncorrelated assets with high sharp ratios. Gold was going up because central banks were buying. But then the trend became visible and the fast money was not making any money on Bitcoin. So they moved over to gold and that was the time when you know silver was mooning to $150 and and so you had all those flows.

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0:59the ETF story was a big one for Bitcoin there was a lot of fast money just playing along And of course the Bitcoin maxis will say, "Well, this is adoption and this and that and and it was and it is, but part of it is just people want stuff to move and they'll they'll jump on that train." And then Bitcoin peaked uh it had a four-year cycle peak at 126,000

1:21just at the time that gold had really been on the move, right? So 2025, gold was the star player was up over 30% even though it's completely uncorrelated to both stocks and bonds. So that I mean that's what you want in a portfolio, right? You want uncorrelated assets with high sharp ratios. Gold was going up because central banks were buying. But then the the trend became visible and

1:45the fast money was not making any money on Bitcoin. So they moved over to gold and that was the time when you know silver was mooning to $150 and and so you had all those flows. >> Then we had the Iran conflict and gold had overshot its upside. Maybe if we can pull that chart back up, you can see that the global money supply which is the red line or this is the fitted

2:11version of it uh to explain gold's price. You know, gold went way above that because of the fast money and the yellow the yellow bars is is inflows into the gold ETFs. And so gold went too far up and then the Iran uh conflict happened and all of a sudden gold and treasuries were for sale because now all of a sudden there are reserve assets that are potentially a source of funding

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