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Anthropic's revenue growth has been unprecedented in Silicon Valley history, growing 10x year-over-year for three consecutive years, yet the company may still be losing market share to competitors like OpenAI, open-source, and Grok because the total market is expanding exponentially.

Anthropic's exceptional 10x annual growth masks potential market share loss due to the massive expansion of the overall AI market. ✦ AI generated

Gavin Baker · All-In Podcast · 2026-08-14 · original ↗

starts at this moment · 5:40

You know, the the rumored numbers are exceptional. We've really never seen anything like this. You know, I I still think those moments in April and May were some of the most extraordinary moments in the history of capitalism. And what's wild to me is that probably on the margin, Anthropic is losing share to OpenAI, to open source, and to Grock. and they're still growing so fast. The numbers are still exceptional. So I think you know that speaks to the and why is that? This is like an important thing for people to understand. The pi is getting ginormous. So even if on a percentage basis Anthropic is losing on a percentage basis the real number and we talked about open source being dark tokens that aren't tracked anywhere. You know this is a major major pi growing moment.

verbatim transcript · starts at 5:40

Transcript · around this moment

5:40couple of things on anthropic. You know, the the rumored numbers are exceptional. We've really never seen anything like this. You know, I I still think those moments in April and May were some of the most extraordinary moments in the history of capitalism. And what's wild to me is that probably on the margin, Anthropic is losing share to OpenAI, to open source, and to Grock. and they're still growing so fast. The numbers are

6:09still exceptional. So I think you know that speaks to the >> and why is that? This is like an important thing for people to understand. The pi is getting ginormous. So even if on a percentage basis Anthropic is losing on a percentage basis the real number and we talked about open source being dark tokens that aren't tracked anywhere. You know this is a major major pi growing moment.

6:37That's that's what you mean there. >> That's the point. I think AI broadly accelerated in the month of July which was kind of crazy to contrast with the public stock market action. Now we have a higher resolution view of what was happening. But a few things on the anthropic IPO. Listen, it's an exceptional business. They've executed really well and they haven't just executed on the model. Their products

6:57are amazing. I always think about um Eric Fishria. I don't think you've ever had on the pod. Uh but you know, I think he'd be a great guest. He's a good friend. he said had a thought experiment nearly two years ago that he thought open AAI would still and anthropic would still have a lot of value even if they lost at the model layer because the product the harness the user familiarity

7:20um it's all it's all so important and I think there's an element of truth to that but as far as the IPO listen the first thing I would just say is the two trillion I'm a little skeptical we saw this with SpaceX if you're everybody's jockeying to be lead left um philanthropic and if you lose that first thing you want to do is make whoever's lead left look bad. So you leak to the

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