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Anthropic and OpenAI are already adding more revenue per month than Meta, Google, or Microsoft, and the combined pair could be at a $200 billion revenue run rate by the end of this year.

David argues the two leading AI labs are now adding revenue faster per month than the biggest hyperscalers, and projects their combined run rate could hit $200B by year end. ✦ AI generated

David · a16z Podcast · 2026-05-29 · original ↗

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Anthropic and OpenAI are adding more revenue per month than Meta, Google, or Microsoft. And I wouldn't be surprised if the combination of those two companies is doing 200 billion of revenue run rate.

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0:00Anthropic and OpenAI are adding more revenue per month than Meta, Google, or Microsoft. And I wouldn't be surprised if the combination of those two companies is doing [music] 200 billion of revenue run rate. >> Between 2020 and 2024, top 1% exit started at $10 billion. We updated those numbers in February this year, $20 billion. We just updated them yesterday. It's now at $32 billion. So, we've 10x

0:25>> Yeah. >> over the space of kind of 24 months. >> models get really good and the products that get built around them get really good, you see this take [music] off in usage happening. Thought we had an AI bubble. I feel pretty confident saying that we're not in a bubble right now. The one thing that could shift that would be I can't think of a time in my career

0:45where I have changed my mind about things at a faster clip, which is good, but is also humbling, right? Two big areas are scale and value capture. So, scale on the scale side the world kind of changed in November as it relates to our business and I think sort of productivity in in the workforce um you know, the way that we thought about much of the AI work that was happening

1:08before that was sort of you know, a sort of like nebulous promise in the enterprise, but we probably were contextualizing it around things like the cloud you know, in software companies and in productivity enhancement. And then on the consumer side, you know, you could think about AI companies like a consumer business, like you know, how many users they have and and what the price is and how big that can get. And by the way, I

1:28think that's going to be much bigger than people expect to, which we could which we could talk about, but as of November, I think all of our priors shifted around what is actually going to happen in the enterprise. But just maybe to contextualize what's happened since then basically, Anthropic and OpenAI are adding more revenue per month than Meta, Google, or Microsoft. They are already at that scale of

1:53revenue getting added and actual diffusion of this technology into the real economy is tiny. It's like less than 5%. >> Yeah. >> Now, within coding and in tech-forward companies, yes, it's it's much more advanced. Um but as it relates to every other function in the enterprise, um you know, full sort of utilization of the capabilities, we're nowhere right now. So, if you pair that up with the fact that they're already getting

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