Article · 2026-07-29 · 3 moments

Quoting Matthew Green

Right now we’re in the midst of a historic transition from traditional public-key algorithms based on EC-based cryptography and RSA, moving over to new post-quantum algorithms based on novel problems. This is why there are so many standards like HAWK being considered. If there was ever a perfect time for a massive new public cryptanalysis capability to come on line, we’re in it. So unless AIs succeed in undermining all of our hard problems altogether (or we live in Impagliazzo’s Minicrypt) then ✦ AI generated

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HOST Simon Willison

Prediction

In the best case, AI cryptanalysis gives us real confidence in the problems we have identified and makes the cryptanalysis literature considerably more robust.

Green sketches the optimistic outcome: AI-driven cryptanalysis validates the hardness of current post-quantum problems and enriches the literature.

transcript

Matthew Green: In the best case, the result is that we gain real confidence in the problems we've identified, and the cryptanalysis literature gets a lot more robust. Hopefully.

provides context · 1

Claim◆

This could not be a better time for AI to get good at cryptanalysis, unless AI succeeds in undermining the hard problems themselves or we live in Impagliazzo's Minicrypt.

Green argues that the transition period is an ideal window for AI-driven cryptanalysis, with the caveat that AI might instead undermine the foundational hard problems or we inhabit a Minicrypt world where they don't exist.

transcript

Matthew Green: If there was ever a perfect time for a massive new public cryptanalysis capability to come on line, we're in it. So unless AIs succeed in undermining all of our hard problems altogether (or we live in Impagliazzo's Minicrypt) then this could not be a better time for AI to get good at cryptanalysis.

explains mechanism · 1extends · 1gives example · 1

Context

We are in the midst of a historic transition from traditional public-key algorithms based on EC and RSA to post-quantum algorithms based on novel problems.

Green establishes the current moment as a historic cryptographic transition from EC/RSA to post-quantum standards like HAWK.

transcript

Matthew Green: Right now we're in the midst of a historic transition from traditional public-key algorithms based on EC-based cryptography and RSA, moving over to new post-quantum algorithms based on novel problems. This is why there are so many standards like HAWK being considered.

Highlight slides

The Perfect Window for AI Cryptanalysis✦ from: This could not be a better time for AI to get good at cryptanalysis, unless AI succeeds in undermining the hard problems themselves or we live in Impagliazzo's Minicrypt.Two Cautions That Invalidate the Window✦ from: This could not be a better time for AI to get good at cryptanalysis, unless AI succeeds in undermining the hard problems themselves or we live in Impagliazzo's Minicrypt.

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