Article · 2026-07-07 · 6 moments

Tech jobs market in 2026, part 3: hiring managers & job seekers

The market where nobody finds each other, the hottest market for AI-related positions, tough for engineering leaders, and more. Based on details from 50+ hiring managers & job seekers ✦ AI generated

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GUEST Mike Julian, CEO of DuckBill Group GUEST Senior EM, private-equity backed company, Bay Area, US GUEST Engineering manager, large company, Berlin, Germany GUEST AI Engineer at an AI decacorn, San Francisco, US GUEST Fractional VP of Engineering, Series B, New York, US HOST Gergely Orosz

Anecdote

AI-generated and AI-polished resumes now look impressive on paper but frequently misrepresent candidates' real skills, as illustrated by a self-described 'architect' candidate who, when asked about architectural principles, could only describe Scrum ceremonies like daily standups and sprint planning.

A Berlin engineering manager describes how AI-enhanced CVs look impressive but candidates' actual technical knowledge often doesn't match, citing a 'senior architect' who confused architecture with agile ceremonies.

transcript

Engineering manager, large company, Berlin, Germany: CVs are high-quality, but the people behind them are not. Almost every resume looks impressive. However, the quality of the conversations does not match it at all. I asked which architectural principles or patterns he had used in his projects. His answer was: 'Daily standup, sprint planning, and retrospective.'

rebuts · 1

Anecdote

Even offering top-of-market compensation (90th percentile via Pave) plus a hybrid arrangement and good culture is not enough to attract engineering managers and Staff+ engineers, even though it's comparatively much easier to hire people with under 10 years of experience.

A Fractional VP of Engineering says hiring EMs and Staff+ engineers is extremely hard right now even with 90th-percentile pay, while less senior hires are comparatively easy to find.

transcript

Fractional VP of Engineering, Series B, New York, US: It's extremely difficult to hire EMs and Staff+ engineers. It's much easier to hire folks with less than 10 years of experience. This is despite us offering 90th percentile comp via Pave, and having a hybrid and good culture.

Anecdote◆

Fake candidates using AI to fabricate resumes and even to perform live during interviews — sometimes outsourcing the interview entirely to a different person — have become a widespread problem, turning technical interviews into something resembling a CAPTCHA test.

A Bay Area senior engineering manager describes a rise in fake candidates who use AI during interviews or even outsource the interview to someone else entirely, making screening feel like fighting a CAPTCHA.

transcript

Senior EM, private-equity backed company, Bay Area, US: There are a lot more fake candidates applying, leveraging AI for not just resumes, but also interviews. In extreme cases, the interviews are being outsourced so that a different person shows up for the interview. It feels a bit like playing captcha with them during interviews.

Claim◆

Hiring managers are unable to find highly-skilled talent to recruit, at the exact same time that experienced, proven professionals are having their job applications ignored by employers — each side blocks the other from being found.

The tech hiring market has a paradoxical 'Catch-22': employers say they can't find senior talent while experienced candidates say their applications go unanswered.

transcript

Gergely Orosz: Hiring managers are saying that highly-skilled talent (typically senior+ engineers) is not available to be recruited, at the same time as experienced, proven professionals find their applications ignored by employers. What seems paradoxical here is how both can be true.

explains mechanism · 2gives example · 2provides context · 1

Anecdote

Inbound job applications have become nearly useless as a hiring channel because the volume of irrelevant submissions drowns out the rare qualified candidate; nearly all of DuckBill Group's recent hires came through personal networks and direct LinkedIn outreach instead.

DuckBill Group's CEO says his company gets ~1,000 inbound applications a day but almost none are relevant, so hiring now happens almost entirely through networking and outreach.

transcript

Mike Julian, CEO of DuckBill Group: We get about 1,000 applications a day on inbound and maybe two of them are even relevant to the posting. I mostly no longer look at inbound seriously because it's so c***. I'd almost certainly miss a great inbound submission if it came in. All of our recent hires have been via network and us reaching out to folk on LinkedIn.

explains mechanism · 1provides context · 3rebuts · 1

Anecdote

The job market for AI/LLM engineers is extraordinarily strong right now, to the point that a former forward-deployed engineer now turns down offers he once would have jumped at, thanks to an overwhelming volume of inbound interest.

An AI engineer at a San Francisco decacorn calls this the best job market he's ever seen, saying inbound interest is so high he can afford to reject companies he once dreamed of joining.

transcript

AI Engineer at an AI decacorn, San Francisco, US: It's the greatest job market I've ever seen. I'm an L5 former FDE, now SWE, who has worked on LLM apps for ~2 years. The inbound top of the funnel is bonkers, and I find myself saying 'no' to places that I would have once killed to work at.

Highlight slides

The Hiring Catch-22✦ from: Hiring managers are unable to find highly-skilled talent to recruit, at the exact same time that experienced, proven professionals are having their job applications ignored by employers — each side blocks the other from being found.Fake Candidates Are Gaming Technical Interviews✦ from: Fake candidates using AI to fabricate resumes and even to perform live during interviews — sometimes outsourcing the interview entirely to a different person — have become a widespread problem, turning technical interviews into something resembling a CAPTCHA test.Two Sides, Same Market✦ from: Hiring managers are unable to find highly-skilled talent to recruit, at the exact same time that experienced, proven professionals are having their job applications ignored by employers — each side blocks the other from being found.Who's Reporting This✦ from: Fake candidates using AI to fabricate resumes and even to perform live during interviews — sometimes outsourcing the interview entirely to a different person — have become a widespread problem, turning technical interviews into something resembling a CAPTCHA test.

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