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Audio · 2025-08-24 · 10h 35m · 5 moments

#478 – Scott Horton: The Case Against War and the Military Industrial Complex

Scott Horton is the director of the Libertarian Institute, editorial director of Antiwar.com, host of The Scott Horton Show, co-host of Provoked, and for the past three decades a staunch critic of U.S. military interventionism. Thank you for listening ❤ Check out our sponsors: https://lexfridman.com/sponsors/ep478-sc See below for timestamps, and to give feedback, submit questions, contact Lex, etc. CONTACT LEX: Feedback – give feedback to Lex: https://lexfridman.com/survey AMA – submit que ✦ AI generated

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01
Claim

The post-9/11 wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Pakistan, and Yemen led to an estimated 900,000 to 940,000 direct deaths, 3.6 to 3.8 million indirect deaths, 37 million people displaced, and cost $8 trillion, with no strategic benefit to the American people beyond advancements in prosthetic limbs.

Scott Horton cites Brown University's Cost of War project to quantify the staggering human and financial toll of the post-9/11 wars, calling the entire enterprise a catastrophic failure that accomplished nothing of value for American society.

transcript

Scott Horton: The post-9-11 wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Pakistan, and Yemen led to an estimated 900,000 to 940,000 direct deaths and 3.6 to 3.8 million indirect deaths. And the cost in terms of dollars was $8 trillion, with 2.2 trillion on Afghanistan and 2.9 trillion on Iraq and Syria. The result on every front, as we'll talk about, I think it's fair to say that it did not accomplish its purpose. One important statistic that you could have mentioned from the Cost of War project as well is 37 million people displaced from their homes, right? If you want to boil it down, what did anyone get out of this other than, some people got a dividend check from Lockheed or that kind of thing, but that's not to the benefit of the society whatsoever. What society got out of it? What America got out of it? We have better Luke Skywalker hands than before. That's it. I don't think there's any more clear illustrations of the complete failure of the military industrial complex.

02
Mechanism

Government decision-making is driven not by a coherent national interest but by the private interests of the people in power, where bureaucratic self-preservation, career advancement, and the need to maintain 'our position' override truth and reality.

Horton explains public choice theory and the bureaucratic dynamics that cause government officials to prioritize institutional consensus and personal advancement over truth, using examples from Daniel Ellsberg and David Hardy.

transcript

Scott Horton: You'd be interested in this if you don't already know the subject is public choice theory. It's kind of a branch of libertarian political economy studies that says that essentially one of its major aspects is that there really is no national interest the way you and I might think of it, sitting here hashing it out across the table. Because what becomes the national interest is the interest of the people in charge of making the decisions for the nation. And so they all ultimately are private choices, aren't they? And the national interest becomes subsumed by what's good for me now. Ellsberg tells the story of where he's the deputy undersecretary of state for making up nonsense or whatever it is, or defense of the, no, state, I believe. And his whole job is making his boss look good, whether he agrees with him or not. And then the hope is that next year he'll be in his boss's position and his boss will move up one. And then his job will be making his boss look good then. And he explains how the truth and reality just gets washed out of this. My friend David Hardy, who wrote the best book about the Waco massacre. He said, there's truth and there's falsity. That's the world we live in. But in government work, there's our position. And our position takes place on an entirely different plane than truth and falsity.

gives example · 3supports · 1

03
Fact

The United States deliberately baited the Soviet Union into invading Afghanistan to create a 'Soviet Vietnam' that would bankrupt and weaken the USSR, while simultaneously fabricating a Soviet threat to Iran to justify the Carter Doctrine.

Horton details how Brzezinski and Slocum's strategy of baiting the Soviets into Afghanistan was a deliberate attempt to inflict a Vietnam-style quagmire on the USSR, and how the Carter Doctrine's justification of a Soviet threat to Iran was knowingly false.

transcript

Scott Horton: This is Zbigniew Brzezinski and his, he was national security advisor under Jimmy Carter. And his, I guess, counterpart at defense, a guy named Walter Slocum, they came up with this brilliant idea that what we'll do is we will bait the Soviets into over-expansion. Now, we don't want them to invade West Germany, but the Afghans are expendable. So if we can bait the Soviets into Afghanistan and bog them down, we will be adding straw to the camel's back. This is a way to inflict, because by then, think of it, the word Vietnam, that's not even the name of a country over there somewhere anymore. Vietnam at that time, that word means some horrible, stupid, no-win quagmire thing that you shouldn't have done. So now they're saying, let's do that to the Reds. We'll bog them down, bleed them to bankruptcy, and force them out the hard way and hurt them in doing that. Just after the Carter Doctrine speech, Brzezinski, in a private meeting with the Saudi foreign minister and also with his deputy, Warren Christopher, he admitted that we don't think there's really a Soviet threat to Iran. Brzezinski himself admitted that, so the pretext for the Carter Doctrine was fake.

explains mechanism · 1rebuts · 1

04
Fact

The United States armed and supported both sides of the Iran-Iraq war — backing Saddam Hussein's regime with dual-use technology and intelligence even as it used chemical weapons, while simultaneously selling arms to Iran through Israel in the Iran-Contra affair — and the CIA orchestrated cocaine trafficking to fund the Contras.

Horton traces the cynical logic of the Iran-Iraq war, where the U.S. backed Saddam Hussein (including with materials for chemical weapons) while also arming Iran via Israel, and connects the Iran-Contra scandal to the CIA's role in the crack cocaine epidemic through drug trafficking to fund the Contras.

transcript

Scott Horton: It was a hell of a war for nine years, all through the 1980s, as the United States almost entirely backed Saddam Hussein, except for when they backed the Ayatollah, remember Iran-Contra. So America's back in Saddam, except when they're helping Israel back Iran. They did talk about, you know what we do is we support one side till they start getting ahead a little bit, then we support the other side a little bit more. That's balancing in wartime, encouraging them to keep killing each other. There is substantial documentation that Western governments, especially the US and some of its allies provided Iraq with dual use technology, intelligence and materials, which facilitated Iraq's chemical weapons program. The CIA had a massive operation to bring cocaine into the United States by the truckload and plane load to sell it to poor Americans, blacks, especially in LA. They made a Tom Cruise movie after years of calling us conspiracy kooks. The movie's about a guy named Barry Seal whose job it was to fly guns and money down there and cocaine up here for the Contras for the CIA and into Bill Clinton's Arkansas. The same guy with the just say no, and the same guy with the massively increased penalties for people engaging in just simply the possession. There are people who went to prison for decades for life for just possession of the same drugs that the government was bringing in.

gives example · 1rebuts · 1

05
Claim

A primary motivation for the Gulf War was to 'kick the Vietnam syndrome once and for all' — to restore American martial spirit and the public's willingness to support military intervention after the anti-war sentiment of the post-Vietnam era.

Horton argues that defeating 'Vietnam syndrome' — the American public's post-Vietnam reluctance to support foreign interventions — was an explicitly stated goal of the Bush administration, and that the war was designed as a showcase to normalize militarism and establish America's unipolar dominance.

transcript

Scott Horton: It was an explicitly stated part of their thinking was, we have to defeat Vietnam syndrome. The reluctance of the American people to do things like this. We got to give them one that we can do. That'll be short, that'll be sweet, that'll be fun, that'll be easy. We can hold a big ass parade and be victorious again like the old days. Rebuild that martial spirit and make that normalcy in America, not the post-Vietnam anti-militarist malaise. And Bush Sr. then after the fact said, by God, we've kicked Vietnam syndrome once and for all. So they can enforce what they called the New World Order. As George Bush Sr. himself said, what we say goes. It's our unipolar moment, as Charles Krauthammer put it in Foreign Affairs, and we're going to take full advantage of it. The world trusts us with this power because they know that we are good people and we know what we're doing and we only have their best interests at heart.

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