Audio · 2025-06-26 · 4h 11m · 6 moments

#473 – Iran War Debate: Nuclear Weapons, Trump, Peace, Power & the Middle East

Debate on Iran war between Scott Horton and Mark Dubowitz. Scott Horton is the author and director of the Libertarian Institute, editorial director of Antiwar.com, host of The Scott Horton Show, and for the past three decades, a staunch critic of U.S. foreign policy and military interventionism. Mark Dubowitz is the chief executive of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, host of the Iran Breakdown podcast, and a leading expert on Iran and its nuclear program for over 20 years. This debate ✦ AI generated

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GUEST Scott Horton GUEST Mark Dubowitz

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Claim◆

The negotiations were a pretext for war; Trump and his cabinet must have known the Ayatollah would not give up all enrichment, because that enrichment capability is Iran's latent nuclear deterrent.

Scott Horton argues that the US demand for zero enrichment was a non-starter designed to justify military action, as Iran's enrichment capability is its latent deterrent.

transcript

Scott Horton: Essentially, as should be clear to everyone now, all these negotiations were just a pretext for war. Trump and his entire cabinet must have known that the Ayatollah is not going to give up all enrichment. That is their latent nuclear deterrent. Their posture has been heavily implied: don't attack us and we won't make a nuke. While America's position was, if you make a nuke, if you start to, we'll attack you. So it's the perfect standoff.

provides context · 1rebuts · 2

Prediction

Bombing Iran's nuclear facilities makes a nuclear weapon more likely, not less—the Ayatollah may now change his mind and decide to build a bomb as a deterrent, precisely because the attack proves the danger of remaining undefended.

Horton argues that the attack on Fordow and the broader campaign will push Iran to abandon its no-bomb bluff and race for a weapon, creating a slippery slope toward deeper war.

transcript

Scott Horton: Now there's every reason to believe that at least is much more likely now that the Ayatollah will change his mind about God changing his mind and will say that actually maybe we do need a nuclear deterrent. That's really what it's been for this whole time is a bluff. We have bullets in one pocket, revolver in another. Let's not you and me fight and escalate this thing. It's the same position, by the way, as Japan and Germany and Brazil. Two of the three of those are under America's nuclear umbrella, I admit, but still, where they've proven they've mastered the fuel cycle and they can make nuclear weapons. But hey, since nobody's directly threatening them now, why escalate things and go ahead and make atom bombs? That has been their position the whole time, because after all, they could not break out and make a nuke without everyone in the world knowing about it.

Context

Iran's enrichment to 60% was not a dash for the bomb but a reaction to Israeli sabotage and a bargaining chip meant to pressure the US back into the JCPOA.

Horton argues that Iran's 60% enrichment was a direct response to Israeli sabotage and assassinations, and was intended as leverage to get the US back into the nuclear deal, not as a step toward weaponization.

transcript

Scott Horton: They could have enriched up to 90 plus percent uranium-235 this whole time. The reason they were enriching up to 60% was in reaction to Israeli sabotage, first of all, assassinating their nuclear scientists, and then they're sabotaging Natanz. They start enriching up to 60%, just like they did in the Obama years, to have a bargaining chip to negotiate away.

Data◆

Iran has a long history of deception, hidden nuclear sites, and an active past nuclear weapons program (AMAD), and has spent a half trillion dollars on a program that provides only 3% of its electricity—far more than any civilian rationale would justify.

Dubowitz argues that the scale, secrecy, and history of Iran's nuclear program—including the AMAD warhead program, undeclared sites, and massive expenditure—demonstrate a drive for weapons capability, not just civilian energy.

transcript

Mark Dubowitz: It is a regime that has lied about its nuclear program and never actually disclosed its nuclear sites. All these sites were discovered by Iranian opposition groups, by Western intelligence agencies. And the International Atomic Energy Agency, which is the UN agency responsible for preventing proliferation, has come out again and again over many, many years in reports, very detailed reports, describing Iran's nuclear weapons program. … They had an active nuclear warhead program called AMAD, which ended in 2003 formally when the United States invaded Iraq. And we know that because not only has that been detailed by the IAEA, but actually Mossad, in a daring operation in Tehran, took out a nuclear archive and brought it back to the West. … Khamenei spent a half a trillion dollars, and that program supplies maybe 3% of their electrical needs.

rebuts · 2

Claim

The US negotiating offer in Oman was reasonable—it allowed temporary above-ground enrichment and a future multinational consortium—but Khamenei rejected it, likely because he wanted to keep his breakout capability until Trump is gone.

Dubowitz explains that the US offer was not a zero-enrichment ultimatum but a phased plan with sanctions relief; Khamenei rejected it, suggesting he intends to maintain his nuclear capabilities until a future US administration.

transcript

Mark Dubowitz: Scott's saying that President Trump had said, here's the offer, take it or leave it, zero enrichment, full dismantlement. Well, in fact, that wasn't the offer that was presented to the Iranians at Oman. The offer was a one-page offer. And it said, you can temporarily enrich above ground. You've got to render your below ground facilities, quote, non-operational. And then at some time in the future, three, four years, as Scott said, there'll be a consortium that'll be built, not on Iranian territory. It'll be a partnership with the Saudis and the Emiratis. It'll be under IAEA supervision. And that enrichment facility will create fuel rods for your nuclear reactors. So that was the offer presented to Iran. And that offer would come with significant sanctions relief, billions of dollars that would go to the regime. … And I was shocked that Khamenei rejected it. He did reject it. And I think he rejected it because I think he believed that he could continue to do to President Trump what he had done to President Obama, which is just continue to squeeze and squeeze and squeeze the Americans at the table in order to ensure that he could keep all these nuclear facilities, all these nuclear capabilities, so that at a time of his choosing, when President Trump is gone, he can develop nuclear weapons.

rebuts · 1

Fact

The claim that Iran killed 600 Americans in Iraq with Iranian-made EFPs was a propaganda campaign by the Cheney administration to justify a war with Iran, and was debunked by multiple embedded reporters and US intelligence officers who found the bombs were made in Iraq by Iraqis.

Horton argues that the widely cited accusation that Iran was responsible for killing 600 US troops in Iraq with explosively formed penetrators was a deliberate propaganda effort by Dick Cheney and David Petraeus, and that the evidence showed the bombs were manufactured locally by Iraqi Shiites.

transcript

Scott Horton: There was a gigantic propaganda campaign by Dick Cheney and his co-conspirators, David Petraeus and Michael Gordon of the New York Times, now at the Wall Street Journal. where they lied and lied like the devil for about 5, six months in early 2007, that every time a Shiite set off a roadside bomb, these new improved copper cord enhanced, they're called EFPs, explosively formed penetrators, that anytime that happened, Iran did it. … I have a solid dozen sources, including Michael Gordon's own colleague, Alyssa Rubin at the New York Times and many others, where they found these bomb factories in Shiite Iraq. They were being made by Shiite Arab Iraqis. And when David Petraeus was going to have a big press conference and they laid out all the components, all the reporters gathered around and they started noticing that the components said made in UAE, made in Haditha, that is Iraq. In other words, there was no evidence whatsoever that these came from Iran.

provides context · 1

Highlight slides

Negotiations as Pretext for War✦ from: The negotiations were a pretext for war; Trump and his cabinet must have known the Ayatollah would not give up all enrichment, because that enrichment capability is Iran's latent nuclear deterrent.The Deterrence Standoff✦ from: The negotiations were a pretext for war; Trump and his cabinet must have known the Ayatollah would not give up all enrichment, because that enrichment capability is Iran's latent nuclear deterrent.A History of Deception✦ from: Iran has a long history of deception, hidden nuclear sites, and an active past nuclear weapons program (AMAD), and has spent a half trillion dollars on a program that provides only 3% of its electricity—far more than any civilian rationale would justify.The AMAD Warhead Program✦ from: Iran has a long history of deception, hidden nuclear sites, and an active past nuclear weapons program (AMAD), and has spent a half trillion dollars on a program that provides only 3% of its electricity—far more than any civilian rationale would justify.Cost vs. Output — No Civilian Rationale✦ from: Iran has a long history of deception, hidden nuclear sites, and an active past nuclear weapons program (AMAD), and has spent a half trillion dollars on a program that provides only 3% of its electricity—far more than any civilian rationale would justify.

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