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Audio · 2025-04-24 · 3h 14m · 6 moments

#466 – Jeffrey Wasserstrom: China, Xi Jinping, Trade War, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Mao

Jeffrey Wasserstrom is a historian of modern China. Thank you for listening ❤ Check out our sponsors: https://lexfridman.com/sponsors/ep466-sc See below for timestamps, transcript, and to give feedback, submit questions, contact Lex, etc. Transcript: https://lexfridman.com/jeffrey-wasserstrom-transcript CONTACT LEX: Feedback – give feedback to Lex: https://lexfridman.com/survey AMA – submit questions, videos or call-in: https://lexfridman.com/ama Hiring – join our team: https://lexfridma ✦ AI generated

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01
Claim

Xi Jinping and Mao Zedong both cultivated sustained personality cults, but Mao reveled in chaos while Xi prioritizes order and stability.

Wasserstrom compares Xi Jinping's personality cult to Mao's, noting that Xi is the first leader since Mao with such a sustained cult. He contrasts Mao's love of disorder and class struggle with Xi's emphasis on stability, hierarchy, and Confucian values.

transcript

Jeffrey Wasserstrom: So the biggest commonality of them is that they're both the subject of personality cults. and that Mao was the center of a very intensely felt one from 1949 to 1976. And when he died, there was tremendous outpouring of grief, even among people who had objectively suffered enormously because of his policies. Xi Jinping is the first leader in China since him who has had a sustained personality cult of the kind where if you walk into a bookstore in China, the first thing you see are books by him, collections of speeches. And when Mao was alive, you might have thought that's sort of what happened with Communist Party leaders in China. But after Mao's death, there was such an effort to not have that kind of personality cult that there was a tendency to not publish the speeches of a leader until they were done being in power. I was first in China in 1986, and you could go for days without being intensely aware of who was in charge of the party. You would know, but his face wasn't everywhere, the newspaper wasn't dominated with stories about him. And quotations from his words and things like that. So with Xi Jinping, you've had a throwback to that period in Communist Party rule, which seemed as though it might be a part of the past. So that's a key commonality. And a key difference is that Mao really reveled in chaos, in turning things upside down in a sense that he talked about class struggle, which came out of Marxism, but he also really, his favorite work of Chinese popular fiction was The Monkey King, about this legendary figure who, this monkey king who could turn the heavens upside down. So he reveled in disorder and thought disorder was a way to improve things. Xi Jinping is very orderly, is very concerned with kind of stability and predictability. So you can see them as very, very different that way.

02
Context

Confucianism is a conservative, backward-looking philosophy centered on stable hierarchical relationships where both superior and inferior owe each other something, and it is fundamentally at odds with Marxism's progressive view of history.

Wasserstrom explains Confucius's core ideas: hierarchical relationships (father-son, husband-wife, emperor-minister, older brother-younger brother) where each side owes the other something, a backward-looking philosophy seeking to reclaim a golden age of order, fundamentally at odds with Marxism's progressive view of history and class struggle.

transcript

Jeffrey Wasserstrom: Confucius lived in a time when there were these warring kingdoms in a territory that later became China. But what he said was that there had been this period of great order in the past, that the lines between inferior and superior were clear, and there was a kind of synergy between superior and inferior that kept everything ticking along really nicely. He thought that hierarchical relationships were a good thing, and that the trick was that both sides in a hierarchical relationship owed something to the other. So the father and son relationship was a key one. The father deserved respect from the son, but owed the son care and benevolence. And things would be fine as long as both sides in a relationship held up their end. And he had a whole series of these relationships. The husband to the wife was, again, an unequal one, of the husband being superior to the wife, but him owing the wife care and her owing him deference. And he had the same notion that then the emperor to the ministers, these were all parallels. And there were no egalitarian relationships in Confucianism, even something that in the West we often think of as a kind of quintessentially egalitarian relationship between brothers. In the Chinese tradition of Confucianism, there was only older brother and younger brother. There was no, brotherhood was not an egalitarian relationship. It was one where the older brother took care of the younger brother and the younger brother showed respect for the older brother. So stable hierarchy was at the core of everything in society. It permeated everything, including politics. Confucianism was a kind of conservative or even backward-looking thing. It wasn't trying to, it wasn't arguing for progress, it was arguing for reclaiming a pure golden age in the past. So it was also a kind of conservative. So in all kinds of ways, you know, it's irreconcilable to many things about Marxism and communism, which is all about struggle and all about actually a progressive view of history moving from one stage to the next.

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03
Claim

The 1989 Tiananmen Square protests were fundamentally a reformist movement seeking to push the Chinese Communist Party to live up to its own stated ideals of liberalization, not an effort to overthrow the party, and they were motivated by frustrations over corruption, nepotism, and the gap between economic and political reform.

Wasserstrom explains that the 1989 protests were a movement to reform rather than overthrow the Communist Party, driven by frustration with corruption, nepotism, and the gap between economic liberalization and political stagnation. He traces the protests from the 1986 student protests triggered by a rock concert, through Hu Yaobang's death, to the massacre and the iconic Tank Man image.

transcript

Jeffrey Wasserstrom: I think one of the key things to know about the protests in 1989 was that they were an effort to get the Communist Party in China to do a better job of living up to its own stated ideals and to try to support the trend within the party toward a kind of liberalizing and opening up form that had taken shape after Mao's death and in a sense, the student generation of 89, and I was there in 86 when there were some sort of warm-up protests, there was a kind of frustration with what they felt was a half-assed version of what they were talking about, that the government was saying, the party was saying, we believe in reforming and opening up, we need to liberalize, we need to give people more control of their fate. And the students felt that this was being done more effectively in the economic realm than in the political realm. And that there were a lot of sort of partial gestures that suggested the party needed to be pressed to really, really move in that direction. The protests at Tiananmen Square and in plazas all around the country and other cities as well become this mix of things. It's an anti-corruption movement. It's a call for more democracy movement. It's a call for more freedom of speech movement. But it's also a kind of has some counterculture elements that are like, there are rock concerts on the square. The most popular rock musician, Sui Jian, comes to the square and is celebrated when he's there. There's a sense of kind of a variety of things rolled into one. And I brought up how it sort of gets conflated with the movements to overthrow communism in the Eastern Bloc. It was actually in many ways, I think, more like something that happened in the Eastern Bloc 20 years earlier. It was more like Prague Spring and other 1968 protests in the communist bloc, which was about moving toward socialism with a human face, more like trying to get the parties in power to reform rather than necessarily doing away with them.

04
Mechanism

Chinese censorship operates through three mechanisms: fear (direct threats), friction (making it harder to access banned information), and flooding (saturating the information environment with the government's preferred narratives), and this system is more sophisticated than simple blanket blocking.

Wasserstrom describes Margaret Roberts's framework of Chinese censorship — fear, friction, and flooding — noting that censorship is most restrictive on topics directly about China and its leaders. Allegorical works like 1984 and Brave New World are available, but connecting passages in Brave New World Revisited that mention China are excised.

transcript

Jeffrey Wasserstrom: My favorite book about, one of my favorite books about Chinese censorship, Margaret Roberts, where she talks about there are three different ways that the government can control the stories. And she says there's fear, which is this kind of direct censorship thing, I feel like banning things. But there's also friction, which she says, she has three apps, fear, friction, and flooding. And she says they're all important. And I think this is true, not just of China, but in other settings too. So what friction means is you just make it harder for people to get answers or get information that you don't want them to get, even though you know that some people will get it. You just make it that the easiest way, the first answer you'll get through a search. So a lot of tech savvy or globally minded, tapped in Chinese will use, people will use a VPN to jump over the firewall. But it's work. The internet moves slower. You have to keep updating your VPN. So you just create friction so that, okay, some people will find this out. And then flooding, you just fill the airwaves and the media with versions of the stories that you want the people to believe. So all those kind of exist in operation. And I think the fear is the easiest side to say of what's blocked. So I'm always interested in things that, things that you would expect to be censored that aren't censored. You can read all sorts of things in China about totalitarian. You can read Hannah Arendt's book on totalitarianism, which would be the kind of thing you just, you know, you're not supposed to be able to read that in a somewhat totalitarian state or a dictatorial state or anything. but it's not specifically about China. And so censorship is most restrictive when it's things that are actually about China, things about leaders of the Chinese Communist Party. There's intense kind of censorship of that and certain events in that way.

05
Claim

China exhibits elements of both Orwell's 1984 and Huxley's Brave New World — 1984-style repression in Xinjiang and Tibet, and Brave New World-style control through pleasure and distraction in wealthier cities like Shanghai — but COVID lockdowns brought even Shanghai into an Orwellian moment.

Wasserstrom argues that different parts of China correspond to different dystopian visions: Xinjiang and Tibet operate with 1984-style brutal repression, while cities like Shanghai more closely resemble Brave New World's control through distraction and pleasure. However, COVID lockdowns brought even Shanghai into an Orwellian mode of intense monitoring and control.

transcript

Jeffrey Wasserstrom: I do think the Brave New World side of things, I think with China, I was feeling it was definitely moving more toward Brave New World, except Tibet and Xinjiang being more the crude, boot-on-the-face, 1984 style of control. But then during the COVID lockdowns, when people were being so intensely monitored and controlled, Even places like Shanghai that had seemed much more the Brave New World kind of style had their Orwellian moment. So you have it now, I think it's, you know, there are more 1984, more Brave New World parts of the country, and there are also more Brave New World, more 1984 moments. In Xinjiang, they were when they were starting to round people up. There's this great book by a Uyghur poet. He talks about how people were just starting to disappear off the streets and they were being accused of being radicalized and being potential terrorists. And the cues could be something like somebody giving up smoking or not drinking alcohol because that was seen as something that sometimes went along with becoming more more devoted to Islam and more devoted to something, a particular version of it. So he talked about how a group of the poets, when they would get, or writers, would they get together, they would, whether or not any of them drank, they would make sure there was a bottle of alcohol on their table, because it was simply a way of trying to stay ahead of this system of looking for these kind of clues. So you really have this dark side of Xinjiang is this example, and Tibet also with incredible tight control.

06
Example

China has both the best and worst internet in the world — heavily censored for political content but technologically advanced for consumer convenience, creating a seductive trade-off that mirrors the Brave New World dynamic of control through pleasure.

Wasserstrom describes Christina Larson's insight that China offers the best and worst internet simultaneously: the Great Firewall blocks political information, while consumer apps are hyper-advanced — restaurant apps that identify which specific waiter is in a bad mood. He draws a parallel to William Gibson's description of Singapore as 'Disneyland with the death penalty,' noting the seductive convenience of surveillance states.

transcript

Jeffrey Wasserstrom: Christina Larson, a very bright journalist, a friend of mine who's now working on other things, but was working on China, and she wrote about this in MIT Technology Review. She said, you need to think about China as having the best as well as the worst internet experience in the world. And you think about it with, When you think of the worst, it's easy. the Great Firewall, you try to search for what happened. You search for the tank man, you won't get it. You search for information about Dalai Lama and you get all these lies about him. Search for things about Xinjiang and it makes it seem like it's a place where people are happy rather than massive extralegal detention camps and where your life can be ruined by things you have no control over. But she said, on other ways, when it comes to consumer playing to your pleasures and things, it was really advanced. A lot of things that then come out of the place are tried out there and in massive numbers. And I remember after I, around the time that I had read that, I was in Shanghai and somebody was explaining it to me. They were talking about like going out to eat. Like I said, oh, that's like Yelp. I said, well, yeah, but Yelp just tells you the overall rating for a restaurant over time. We've got one that can tell you which part of the restaurant you want to sit in because there's a waiter that's in a really bad mood and people have posted enough information to do this. Or you know what the best dish there is in the last week. Forget about these sort of slow things. The other line besides Best and Worst Internet I always like is William Gibson, who wrote one of the other important dystopian novels of the present neuromancer. He wrote a rare, for him, non-fiction piece about Singapore where he referred to it as Disneyland with the death penalty.

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