Google Earnings Hold the Key to the Whole Stock Market | WAYT?

Josh: This is the cleanest AI story. It doesn't have the poison that Microsoft has embedded within it in the form of this giant enterprise SAS business. Doesn't have the meta question mark. Why the fuck are they building data centers? Why are they now talking about leasing excess capacity in their data centers? Doesn't have it. Doesn't have the taint of the open AI expectations. Nobody has to believe in Sam Altman to believe that Google will hit. It doesn't have the problems of Microsoft, Oracle, Meta. I call it the last remaining standing clean AI hyperscaler story.

Josh: The AUM of levered ETFs has dropped by over $100 billion. Thanks for playing. And of that $100 billion, 63 has come out of semis. To contextualize that 39% of leverage semi-ETF AUM has been reduced. This decrease is one of the healthiest things that can happen for the market. Amen sister. I totally agree with that. And the semis rallied hard. All that dumbass activity like got washed out and then real buyers came.

Josh: Lower income wage growth has recently reaccelerated. Bank of America's deposit account data showed that after tax wage growth for lower income households went from 2.9% in May to 4.1% in June. Credit performance at major banks is healthy. JPM, Bank of America, Wells Fargo all reported stable or declining card delinquencies and charge offs... The K shape, the bottom of the K, they maybe aren't keeping up in terms of net worths. They're not deteriorating is the point.

Josh: Lower income consumers are adapting rather than disappearing. So they're increasing spending at discount apparel stores. They're trading down private labels, discount merchandise. We all understand this, but the spending is not stopping. It's continuing. So this is substitution and price sensitivity, not demand destruction. And last but not least, aggregate consumption remains positive. June 2026 core retail sales rose .5% following an upwardly revised .8% the prior month.