OpenAI's Identity Crisis, Datacenter Wars, Market Up on Iran News, Mamdani's First Tax, Swalwell Out

JCal: So in other words, people who don't live in New York, who just have it as a second or third home, who could buy that property anywhere, are now being taxed the most. So what do you think that's going to do? It's going to have a massive impact on demand for second homes in New York, which will crash the whole market.

Jason: It's a dog whistle. Crazy people, and this thing's been seen by 30, 40, 50 million people now. It's a dog whistle to say, that's the next UnitedHealthcare CEO. And in the week that a fire, a Molotov cocktail and a bullet gets shot into Sam Altman's house, it's deadly serious. And if you reversed it, I always reverse it. What if a Republican sat outside of Bernie Sanders' second or third home and said, we should, this is his pia de taire, this is his summer home, we should add taxes to it. So just before you point at people's homes and say, this is the villain, be careful, folks, because then if something does happen to that person, like, you know, what happened to Sam Altman this week, you can feel however you want about him, but nobody deserves to have their house fire bombed or shot at, period, full stop.

Sacks: The OpenAI growth rate's been around 3 to 4X a year. The anthropic growth rate has been around 10X a year. So they went from, let's call it 1 to 10 billion of ARR last year. And by the end of Q1 this year, they were already at 30 billion of, again, let's call it their revenue. And they're on their way, like Brad Gersten was saying on our podcast, I think in the last couple of weeks, they're going to end this year at 80 to 100 billion, at least on the current trajectory. And so you can plot their revenue on a logarithmic graph. I mean, again, no one's ever seen anything like it before, where every unit on the y-axis is another, it's 10x, and it's a straight line. It's crazy. So if it's taking Anthropic, let's say one year to 10X and it's taking OpenAI two years to achieve a 10X, then it's obvious which one's going to win. Now, what is the reason for this? It's because Anthropic was very focused on enterprise, specifically coding. And what you're seeing is that businesses are willing to pay for coding, code tokens, on a metered basis, let's call it like electricity, the more they use, the more they're willing to pay, and their usage continues to scale and scale. Consumer is completely different. I mean, consumer is a thing that OpenAI prioritize. Consumers have a lower willingness to pay, maybe only 3 or 4% of them are willing to convert to premium in the 1st place. And what they want is a $20 a month, all-you-can-eat subscription. So the revenue simply doesn't scale the same way that enterprise does. And so if you want to tap into the scalable revenue source in the market right now, you have to go after enterprise. So again, where I would agree with the criticism of OpenAI is maybe they should have been more focused, but they need to be more focused specifically to pursue coding and enterprise. And if they don't catch up soon, to Travis's point, then you could see Anthropic taking a lead here that let's say over the next one or two years, could be insurmountable.