Nikesh Arora: Mythos is Real, Analytical SaaS is Dead, and Google can be a $10T company

Nikesh Arora: Infrastructure software, undervalued. ... Stuff that gives you databases. You collect data into it, stuff that allows the infrastructure to work, whether it's a, you know, database software. Databricks, Snowflake, MongoDB, Oracle, Oracle, all these things you need. Core storage infrastructure, core data. 10 times the data stored in enterprise than we have today. Next 3 years, 10 times. ... I think the category in the middle is called, let's call it system of work or system, a record, people call them. Those are deeply embedded in the way businesses work. ... What's going to happen is step one, we will take away UI and let agents do the work. ... Enterprise software and consumer software UI is the worst thing we did as technologists. ... If that happens, UI goes away. If UI goes away, I can rewire my system of work. ... So I think the whole system of work, system of record gets reinvented in the next five years.

Nikesh Arora: Enterprise software and consumer software UI is the worst thing we did as technologists. If you believe agents are going to work, and I say, I just tell an agent, look, figure out from my sales call, figure out the key points and go post it into whatever sales tracking system I have. An agent conceptually should be able to do it. If that happens, UI goes away. If UI goes away, I can rewire my system of work. I think the whole system of work, system of record gets reinvented in the next five years.

Nikesh Arora: The sad truth is, in a year there's a few thousand breaches or attacks that happen. They happen for pretty rudimentary reasons. It's not because somebody cracked a hard to crack thing. It happens because 89% of the attacks happen because credentials get stolen. Username and password. That's it. ... I'm not worried about the national security part being protected because they're very on it. They're the right people. They spend 10% of their budgets on IT on security. I'm worried about the small offices across the country where they're using some piece of packet software and you're running a dentist office or a doctor's office. Remember when Change Healthcare got breached, every physician's office shut down. ... That's what one should worry about. It's less about the big nuts will get cracked. It's less about cracking some PG&E power generation facility. It's more economic chaos.

Nikesh Arora: I'm not worried about the national security part being protected because they're very on it. They're the right people. They spend 10% of their budgets on IT on security. I'm worried about the small offices across the country where they're using some piece of packet software and you're running a dentist office or a doctor's office. Remember when Change Healthcare got breached, every physician's office shut down. It's less about cracking some PG&E power generation facility. It's more economic chaos.

Nikesh Arora: I think I still believe models are going to become a utility layer. You'll be able to buy intelligence on the fly. Or you can say, I don't need 180 IQ person to go do this task. Give me 120 IQ, and I need a 250 IQ to do this task. I'll pay $10 for this, and for this, I'll pay one cent. ... If you look at already what's happening in the market, right? The profit pools are in applications, not in models. Sarah talked about Codex running away. She didn't say OpenAI is running away. She says Codex is running away. ... The profit pools are in applications that companies can use. The profit pools are not in model usage by companies because most companies have no idea how to use the models. ... See, if I'm a company, I don't want to write every piece of software myself. I want my HR system software, which is agentic enabled and AI enabled to be delivered by some application company. ... I think we're still waiting for that layer of companies to be invented or created where applications will sit.

Nikesh Arora: I think I still believe models are going to become a utility layer. You'll be able to buy intelligence on the fly. Or you can say, I don't need 180 IQ person to go do this task. Give me 120 IQ, and I need a 250 IQ to do this task. I'll pay $10 for this, and for this, I'll pay one cent. So I think models will get differentiated from a utilitarian perspective. If you look at already what's happening in the market, right? The profit pools are in applications, not in models.

Nikesh Arora: Here's the part nobody talks about, is the false positive rates on the models. What is the false positive rate on 4.8 and 5.5? No idea. You guys don't talk about it. You should. The false positive rate on Mythos was 30%. ... So the problem is, it's great for attack. It's horrible for defense. Because it finds 30 times, 30% of the time it finds something, I found a problem, and you say, let's plug the hole. Wait, there wasn't a hole there in the 1st place. ... So now the same problem applies in enterprise. If you use a model without the right harnesses, the right training, you could be running into 10, 20% false positive rates. Let's use the model to pay, I don't know, insurance claims. 10%, 20% false positive. I just lost money. The sycophantic nature of these is ridiculous. So the problem is not who wants the newest model. The problem is how do you take that model with 20% or 10% false positive and make it 0.01% false positive? In my business, I want 0%. ... Mercedes is going to use Opus 4.8 and you can just sit in the car and it's going to drive you. I'm not putting my kids in that car with a 10% false positive rate.

Nikesh Arora: I think Google's underrated. I think it's going to be the first $10 million company in our lifetime. I think they have all the assets that are needed to make this successful. I think people underestimate. You can be a model company, you still need to have a sales force that convinces customers to go out there and embrace these models and buy them. And if you think about it, three hyperscalers have the biggest number of salespeople out there.