Nate Silver Predicts: Democrats Take the House, Newsom Is Fading & AOC Might Win It All in 2028

Nate Silver: So I'd say I think there's no evidence of fraud is the short summary version. The mistake that can be made is to assume that each ballot like comes in independently when there are systematic differences between groups and when they tend to cast their ballots. So Democrats have long been encouraged to vote by mail. Actually, it used to be more of a Republican thing, but like under Trump, who discouraged mail voting in 2016 and 2020 and 2024 to some extent, like that shifted. So look, I think California's system is completely unacceptable. I've done some consulting work on like the Indian election, where you like literally have polling stations in the Himalayas and they actually stagger their elections. But once Election Day happens, they count their vote within 24 hours. I think it's ridiculous and very failed state that California takes longer than that. But if you have one party who systematically tends to vote later, also Democrats in both the LA race and the governorship had more of a choice to make. ... I think the California vote count is an accurate tally of the votes that were cast. ... The prior on Pratt advancing probably would be pretty low potentially. And I wish that people were less partisan. ... These blue shifts or red shifts are somewhat predictable and are going to be an inevitable consequence of having different mechanisms to vote where you have like different cues in a line, right? ... I think the system should be simplified. ... Most countries would count much, much faster than the US. ... The fact that the United States, the technological leader of the world, and the supposed like bickering of democracy can't do that, I think is a sign of atrophy of the efficacy of the system.

Nate Silver: Like I think Democrats are slight favorites to win in 2028. It wouldn't shock me if AOC or Newsom or Shapiro or Ossoff or whomever wins. If they're underdogs again in 2032, look what's happening in the UK where, I mean, it's kind of become like a running joke, but we're going to be through like what, like 6 prime ministers in nine years or something, and they're probably the US's closest comp. It's not a good time to be a defender of the status quo. And I do think candidates like Kamala Harris, who was unable to distance herself, kind of literally unable or unwilling to distance herself from Biden, or Newsom, who's kind of defending that legacy in the same way. To me, that seems like a failed strategy

Nate Silver: I think there are huge generational divides where, you know, so I grew up, I'm 48. So I still remember the kind of, not last questions, but like I still remember the Cold War. I still remember the Berlin Wall following, right? So for me, the connotations of socialism are close adjacent to communism, are a long history of failure of economic development in countries that adopted that system. I think people who are a little bit older don't realize that the socialism brand is much more popular among younger Democrats. ... Where have Democrats lost support? Well, actually the biggest differences are concentrated among Hispanic and to some extent Asian American voters. You know, who do you think are the most likely people to own small businesses in the US? It's A cliche, but 100% true that like recent immigrant groups are very entrepreneurial. ... But you have seen shifts in those groups and the most entrepreneurial groups away from Democrats. because I mean, they all escaped socialist countries and socialist backgrounds and the economic mobility that's afforded by free markets and capitalism and the degree of true liberalism we provide in this country is what's given folks opportunities that don't exist elsewhere.

Nate Silver: I think a Electorally, I'm not saying morally or righteously, whatever else, right? I think combining a little bit of the right kind of anti-oligarch rhetoric with moderation on some of the issues, you know, on the woke stuff, I get that term already feels like it's becoming outdated, but like still supporting small business, especially for men, right? Young men still want to feel as though they control their own destiny. A lot of them feel like they don't do that anymore, but I don't think they necessarily want like all that much hand-holding. ... I think maybe even like having like a little bit more like optimism too. I'm kind of always a fan of like zigging where other people zag. Obama presented a more optimistic take about kind of like the American spirit, right?